Remember the OTA days of old?
When Expedia and Booking.com flooded the market with ads:
- “Best price guarantee”
- “Compare hundreds of hotels instantly”
- “One-stop shop for your perfect stay”
And they trained customers around the world to believe they had the best deals and the best hotels.
For a long time, that worked.
But the game has changed.
Fewer travelers are starting their search on Google or OTA apps.
They’re using AI tools like ChatGPT to ask questions such as:
- “What’s the best ski-in ski-out hotel with a Nordic spa in Tahoe?”
- “Where should I stay in Lake Louise for a quiet winter escape near cross-country skiing?”
- “Which Orlando hotels offer shuttles to Disney and Universal Studios and include free breakfast?”
And instead of scrolling pages of links, they get a list of recommended hotels, right in the answer in seconds. ​ The OTAs are capitalizing on this shift.
And they’re spending big to stay in the recommendation loop.
đź’° Expedia and Booking.com spent $4.5 billion on marketing in Q1 2025.
They are trading their big TV commercial budgets for AI agents. ​ These agents can hold conversations, manage bookings, and dominate visibility.
And what if AI can't find your hotel because your marketing efforts have remained the same? ​ You’ll end up relying more on the OTAs.
And this is where it hurts even more..... The more you rely on them, I predict that the more they'll charge for you to be AI-visible. ​
Yes, I Predict OTA Commission Rates Will Increase
I haven’t heard anyone else talking about this yet, so I know it’s a bold prediction. ​ But it’s grounded in 26 years of experience in hotel management and marketing. I’ve watched the industry evolve in cycles, and this next one is already forming. ​
The Divide Is Here
Right now, there are two kinds of hotels:
Hotel Group #1 - Showing up in AI
They’re updating their content, improving their websites. They're also structuring offers so AI tools like ChatGPT, Google AI Overviews, and Gemini can find and recommend them.
Hotel Group #2 - Leaning harder on OTAs; no AI-search efforts underway
They’re deep in "busy-work", Pushing off AI readiness in their marketing for “someday.” ​ And in the meantime, they’re handing more and more bookings to the OTAs.
Hotels in group #2 are on track to become increasingly OTA-dependent. ​ They will soon have very few options to be visible online. ​
Why OTA Dependency Will Grow & Hotels Will Pay More
We know that an increasing number of travelers are utilizing ChatGPT and Google AI. You want to be the hotel that AI recommends, but if you wait to take action;
The less visible your hotel is to AI, The more you hand your visibility to the OTAs, The more dependent on the OTAs you become, And my prediction is that you'll pay more for those OTA bookings.
Increased OTA costs may come from a commission percentage increase or from:
- AI chat placement fees
- AI visibility boosting/bidding
- AI agent tech compatibility fees
- cross-platform AI visibility packages
This is the divide between the two types of hotels. ​ One is building its new AI-direct channels. The other isn't and will need OTAs more than ever. ​ It’s not in the future. It’s here. It's now.
​ From Digital Brochure to Discovery Magnet
Your website is no longer just a digital brochure. Your social media content isn't just pretty pictures. Your reviews aren't just read before a guest books. ​ It all works together as your visibility engine in the age of AI.
You don’t need to overhaul everything. ​ You need to know the necessary updates for AI tools to understand your value and confidently recommend you.
✨ In the next Revenue Strategy Room, we'll discuss exactly this. ​ ​Revenue Strategy Room: How to Get AI to Recommend Your Hotel ​(back again due to demand) ​​ August 6 | 45 minutes | Free for Hoteliers
You’ll walk away knowing:
- How AI is changing hotel discovery
- What your website must include to be seen
- The simple updates that help you compete without paying more commission.
Because you’ve worked too hard to hand more of your hotel over to the OTAs.
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